Apr 25, 2024 (MENAFN via COMTEX) --
(MENAFN) The Russian Ministry of Economy anticipates a period of stagnation in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports over the next four years, with concerns heightened by potential impacts from Western sanctions on Moscow's energy ambitions. According to a document obtained by Reuters, two out of three scenarios outlined by the ministry project a plateau in LNG production, with an estimated output of 38.6 million metric tons per year from 2025 to 2027 under both the "conservative" and "stressful" scenarios. The ministry has yet to disclose details of its "pressure" scenario, leaving room for speculation regarding potential further constraints on LNG exports.
In contrast to these restrained forecasts, the baseline scenario, considered the most optimistic, suggests a notable increase in production to 56.6 million tons by 2027, up from 33.3 million tons in 2023. Russia has expressed ambitions to capture a larger share of the global LNG market, aiming for 20 percent between 2030 and 2035 compared to its current share of approximately eight percent. Achieving this goal relies heavily on the development of new production platforms, particularly those situated in the Arctic region.
However, Russia's aspirations face significant hurdles posed by a series of Western sanctions, which have impacted projects like Arctic LNG 2. Despite commencing trial production in December, the project has yet to export any cargo. Once fully operational, Arctic LNG 2 is expected to emerge as one of Russia's largest LNG platforms, boasting an annual production capacity of 19.8 million metric tons of LNG and 1.6 million tons of gas condensate from its three production units.
The delay in realizing the full potential of projects like Arctic LNG 2 underscores the challenges posed by sanctions on Russia's energy sector. As Moscow endeavors to expand its presence in the global LNG market, navigating geopolitical tensions and mitigating the impact of sanctions will remain critical factors shaping the trajectory of its energy ambitions in the coming years.â??
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COMTEX_451422085/2604/2024-04-25T16:29:48
